Zigeunerzelt » The Nets felt better

Throughout the NHL playoffs, I have forecasted each round simply by using shots on goal and goaltender save percentage to come up with a baseline for the series. Its not intended to be some magical formula and doesnt apply any context, like, for example, taking injuries into account. This remedial statistical method has gone 9-5 in picks through the first three rounds. Heres a quick look at the five series that went the wrong way: In the first round, Columbus came in ahead of Pittsburgh, though that required Sergei Bobrovsky to perform better than Marc-Andre Fleury (not an impossibility given Fleurys playoff track record), but Fleury and Bobrovsky each had a .908 save percentage in Round One and Pittsburgh dominated puck possession to an extent that they did not during the regular season. Minnesota upended Colorado, in Game Seven overtime, which wasnt altogether surprising. I would have easily been able to talk myself into the upset had the Wild not gone into the series with Ilya Bryzgalov as their starting goaltender, because the Wild were a superior possession team. Darcy Kuemper returned for four games and helped tilt the series back in Minnesotas favour and Semyon Varlamov, whose regular-season play fueled the Avalanches top seed finish, was only okay in the postseason, posting a .913 save percentage in seven games. The touchiest series for this years playoffs was the San Jose-Los Angeles matchup in Round One. The forecast had the Sharks favoured by the slimmest of margins (18.15 expected goals to 18.09 expected goals) and, when they had a 3-0 series lead, that coin flip looked to be falling the right way. We know how that has turned out since that point. In the second round, the Boston Bruins were favoured over the Montreal Canadiens, and while the Bruins controlled large portions of the series, they couldnt solve Carey Price, who had a .936 save percentage in the seven-game upset. Then, in the Conference Finals, the forecast put the Chicago Blackhawks over the Los Angeles Kings, due to a goaltending advantage, because Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick hasnt been great in this years playoffs. After what was a sensational series, it was safe to say that neither team held a goaltending advantage -- both Quick and Corey Crawford struggled -- and the Kings took Game Seven in OT. So, those misses are on the record as we head into the Stanley Cup Final. The expected goals for each team in the series are determined by taking each teams shots for and against over the course of the season, as well as through the first round of the playoffs, and splitting the difference. So, for example, the New York Rangers, over the regular season and playoffs have averaged 32.4 shots on goal per game and the Los Angeles Kings have allowed 27.0 shots on goal per game; the average of those two numbers, 29.70 shots, is the number that is then multiplied by (1 - the opposing goaltenders save percentage) to determine an expected goals per game for the Rangers. Finally, the number is multiplied by seven to indicate an expected goal total for a seven-game series. Theres no guarantee that scoring more goals in a series will result in winning four games first, but the odds certainly favour the team that scores more. So, lets see how the numbers shake out for the Final: Team SF SA Goaltender SV% Expected GF/Series Los Angeles 31.5 27.0 Jonathan Quick 0.912 16.54 N.Y. Rangers 32.4 29.1 Henrik Lundqvist 0.922 18.30 Verdict: While the Kings and Rangers are very similar in their playoff puck possession rates, the Kings were tops in the league during the regular season and ran through a more difficult gauntlet in the Western Conference to reach the Cup Final. The difference in shot rates during the regular season is pretty small, however, with the Kings earning 54.7% of the shots as the Rangers earned 53.0% of the total shots. Over the course of a game, that amounts to about one extra shot on goal; hardly the kind of difference that couldnt be overcome by better goaltending. Which brings us to the advantage to which the Rangers will cling. Lundqvist has been one of the games top goaltenders since coming into the league in 2005-2006, and is performing at a high level in this years playoffs as well, so couldnt he stop an extra shot or two per game? At the other end, Jonathan Quick has traditionally been a very good playoff goaltender in his own right, but his .906 save percentage this year has dropped Quicks all-time playoff save percentage to .922, falling fractionally behind Lundqvist. Certainly, some of the blame for this seasons save percentage can be attributed to the calibre of teams that the Kings have faced on their way to the Cup Final, with San Jose (sixth), Anaheim (first) and Chicago (second) all among the top-scoring teams in the league this season. By comparison, the Rangers got through Philadelphia (eighth), Pittsburgh (fifth) and Montreal (21st), so there is some quality of competition favouring Quick. It would be an upset if the Rangers won the series but a seven-game series, if otherwise close, can easily be decided by goaltending and, right now, its not unreasonable to hold higher expectations for Lundqvist. Lets see if King Henrik can get the job done. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy Sports on Facebook. Air Max Plus Ireland Cheap Air Max Plus Ireland . on the 15-day disabled Monday list because of a strained right hamstring. http://www.airmaxplusireland.com/ . Altidore strained his left hamstring in the Americans opener against Ghana on June 16 and didnt play in their next two games. "We dont know how much because we need to see how hes going, but hes available," U. Air Max Plus Outlet Ireland . It will mark the 22nd time the tournament has been held in this country and fourth in Atlanta Canada but will make its first appearance ever in played Nova Scotia. Air Max Plus Outlet Online . -- Arizona coach Sean Miller rose from his seat every time Roberto Nelson touched the ball and yelled "Shooter!" He could have been talking about his own team, too.NEW YORK, N.Y. - They have hung high above the Barclays Center plaza this season, oversized pictures of the faces of the Brooklyn Nets biggest stars. On the court, those players are looking pretty small. Deron Williams couldnt score in the last game. Kevin Garnett has barely scored at all. And the Miami Heat keep proving that when it comes to constructing a super team, still nobody has done it better. Up 2-0 even without needing huge efforts from LeBron James, the Heat try to push the Nets to the brink of elimination when the series shifts to Brooklyn on Saturday night. "We did what we were supposed to do, protecting home court," Miamis Dwyane Wade. "Now it gets interesting. Now were trying to get one in their building. This is when the playoffs get fun." Miami tied a franchise record with its eighth straight playoff victory by pulling away to win 94-82 in Game 2 on Thursday night. The Nets felt better about their effort after getting blown out in the opener, but there was still plenty of cause for alarm. Williams, the former All-Star who teammates insist is their most important player, shot 0 for 9 in the worst playoff game of his career. Garnett, who is 10 days shy of his 38th birthday, missed a couple of point-blank attempts while going 2 for 8, but that was an improvement from his scoreless Game 1. But as they head home, the Nets still believe they can again become the team that beat the Heat all four times during the regular season. "We have a lot of confidence in ourselves," Garnett said. "We just have to go home and defend our home court." James, averaging just 22 points, has won at least one road game in every playoff series since he and Chris Bosh joined Dwyane Wade in Miami in 2010. A victory in Brooklyn would make it 14 straight series, giving the Heat the longest streak in NBA history. Brooklyn tried to build a threat to the two-time defending champions last summer by bringing in Garnett and Paul Pierce to join All-Star centre Brook Lopez and the Williams-Joe Johnson backcourt that wass already in place.dddddddddddd They believed their aging roster had a two-year window, but the first could be slammed shut by Monday. Lopez was long ago lost to a broken foot, and while the Nets flourished with a smaller lineup, theyre now facing a team that has won two straight titles playing small-ball. So the Nets need everyone to play well, but so far that looks unlikely. Garnett had 12 rebounds and defended well in Game 2, but shouldve had at least two more baskets. Williams, who has battled ankle problems and been in decline since signing a $98.5 million contract in 2012, passed and rebounded fine, but has to give the Nets points, too. "We look for him to bounce back in Game 3," Nets coach Jason Kidd said. Even with Williams woes, the Nets were within two points midway through the fourth quarter. The Heat couldnt shake them until getting three straight offensive rebounds during a 100-second possession in the closing minutes, and are bracing for another tight one Saturday. "This is a very possession-oriented series. Not a lot of turnovers," Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. "Possessions really, really matter and those extra ones can really be backbreakers." No NBA team has won a series after falling behind 3-0, so it doesnt take all that considerable post-season experience the Nets roster possesses to realize Brooklyn has to win the next game. "We need a win. Its a must-win," Williams said. "We cant afford to go down 3-0. We need to get these at home starting with the one on Saturday." The Nets are only 1-10 against the Heat in the post-season, but they also hadnt defeated Miami in the regular season for 4 1/2 years before ending that 13-game skid with a victory on Nov. 1. That was in their home opener and cemented their belief that they could topple the champs in the spring. They insist that confidence is still there. "Our mindset is positive," reserve Mirza Teletovic said. "We know we can beat this team at home." AP Sports Writer Tim Reynolds in Miami contributed to this report. China NFL Jerseys Cheap Nike NFL Jerseys NFL Jerseys Cheap Wholesale NFL Jerseys Cheap Basketball Jerseys Online Stitched Hockey Jerseys Wholesale Baseball Jerseys Football Jerseys Outlet College Jerseys For Sale Cheap MLB Jerseys Wholesale Soccer Jerseys Wholesale Jerseys For Sale Wholesale NFL Jerseys ' ' '