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Who loses sleep over a potential 鈥渢hief in the night鈥? Bond market participants certainly haven鈥檛 been too worried lately. Former Federal Reserve Chair William McChesney Martin used that turn of phrase to describe price inflation during his nearly two-decade run at the Fed.


Interest rates are (quite logically) inextricably linked to inflation expectations. Lenders typically expect their borrowers to compensate them for the expected erosion in real, or inflation-adjusted, value of the funds between the time they are borrowed and the time when they are eventually repaid. This inflation compensation is implied within the agreed upon interest rate for any given loan. As expectations for inflation increase, interest rates move higher.


In the late 1990s Black Gardner Minshew II Jersey , the U.S. Treasury Department embarked on a novel approach to index the principal amount of some of its bonds to inflation. The actual amount a bondholder (i.e. lender) receives at maturity for these Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, increases with inflation. Since a holder of TIPS is insulated from inflation risk, we can compare the market-driven yield for traditional Treasury notes with TIPS to help discern the inflation expectations of Treasury bond market participants.


The chart below depicts the implied expected annual inflation rate for the next 10 years (white line with blue body) alongside the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield Black Ryquell Armstead Jersey , charted over the past 12 months. One can immediately discern a strong correlation between the two (proving our above point that rates and inflation expecations are positively correlated). One might also note that while the two moved up by comparable magnitude through January, since then inflation expectations remain anchored at 2.1-2.2 percent but the nominal 10-year Treasury yield has continued its march higher, especially recently.


10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields & Implied Inflation 鈥淏reak-Even鈥?Expectations


jp-chart-10-23-18


Source: Bloomberg LP


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